Three in 10 UK jobs are at risk over the next 15 years as the tentacles of robotics automation and artificial intelligence spread wider and deeper across the economy. This is the prediction of a new study due to be released tomorrow (24 March). The new research, by technology and economics experts at business consultancy giant PwC, predicts that employees in the utilities, manufacturing, transport and retail industries are most at risk.
Shares looked in-depth at the emerging robotics industry a couple of times during 2016, detailing how UK investors can get involved. First in January, and again in June.
This computerised transition is expected to boost national productivity and, thankfully, generate extra, more interesting jobs elsewhere in the economy. That will help offset many of the more mundane roles threatened by sweeping automation integration.
Dull jobs at risk
‘A key driver of our industry-level estimates is the fact that manual and routine tasks are more susceptible to automation, while social skills are relatively less automatable,’ says John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC. That said, he also believes that no industry is entirely immune from future advances in robotics and AI.
‘Automating more manual and repetitive tasks will eliminate some existing jobs, but could also enable some workers to focus on higher value, more rewarding and creative work, removing the monotony from our day jobs,’ Hawksworth points out. ‘By boosting productivity - a key UK weakness over the past decade - and so generating wealth, advances in robotics and AI should also create additional jobs in less automatable parts of the economy as this extra wealth is spent or invested,’ the economist continues.
‘The UK employment rate is at its highest level now since comparable records began in 1971, despite all the advances in digital and other labour-saving technologies we have seen since. It is not clear that the future will be radically different from the past in terms of how automation will affect overall UK employment rates.’
UK in the middle
The study estimates that the UK (30%) has a lower proportion of existing jobs at potential high risk of automation than the US (38%) and Germany (35%), but more than Japan (21%).
‘There’s no doubt that AI and robotics will rebalance what jobs look like in the future, and that some are more susceptible than others,’ says Jon Andrews, head of technology and investments at PwC. ‘What’s important is making sure that the potential gains from automation are shared more widely across society and no one gets left behind. Responsible employers need to ensure they encourage flexibility and adaptability in their people so we are all ready for the change,’ he says.
Expect a swathe of new rules and regulations to be brought in to manage the human to robot switch, a topic Shares has previously written on.
Re-skilling the workforce
‘In the future, knowledge will be a commodity so we need to shift our thinking on how we skill and upskill future generations,’ states Jon Andrews, head of technology and investments at PwC. ‘Creative and critical thinking will be highly valued, as will emotional intelligence. It’s impossible to predict what jobs there will even be in the future, so life-long learning and a positive attitude to embracing change needs to be a fundamental aspect of the UK’s future success.’
‘The government’s digital strategy acknowledges the challenges and is a step in the right direction towards creating the right environment to support UK businesses’ exploration of emerging technology to drive growth,’ says Andrews.
Robotics, AI and automation is one of many ways that disruptive technologies are changing the way we work. This extensive 'Disruption Eruption' feature in Shares presents a deep dive into the subject that may interest investors.
