Investec banking analyst Ian Gordon thinks consensus forecasts for net mortgage lending at challenger bank Virgin Money (VM) are too pessimistic.
Figures out today from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed gross mortgage lending of £18.2bn in February 2017, up 1% year-on-year and the best performance for that month in nine years.
Noting the January level was also the best over the same time-frame, Gordon asks: ‘When will consensus correct?’
Net mortgage lending shows the flow of new mortgage lending minus any repayments. Gordon’s forecast is for net mortgage lending in 2017 of £3.8bn, representing 13% growth, against the consensus estimate for £2.9bn.
UPDATE IS ON THE HORIZON
Investors may get an indication of who’s right when Virgin delivers its first quarter interim management statement on 25 April.
Gordon reiterates his 385p price target, against the current share price of 321p, and ‘buy’ recommendation. He says: ‘We expect it to deliver a superior total shareholder return over the next 12 months vs every large-cap UK bank.’
