Healthcare firm Futura Medical’s (FUM) erectile dysfunction treatment MED2002 is believed to have a market potential of $1bn, according to leading market researcher Ipsos.

MED2002 is an over-the-counter topical gel, which could be developed into a stronger version, available only through prescription.

FAST-ACTING TREATMENT

The treatment’s onset of action within five minutes means it could be sold at a premium price, compared to existing treatments that work at a slower rate.

MED2002 is under development with a Phase III trial expected later this year to test standard and increased dosage forms of the gel in 700 patients.

Ipsos estimates peak annual sales of the gel for both versions could exceed $1bn before the patent expires in 2028 in the US and 2025 in Europe.

Investors are clearly excited by the optimistic outlook, as the stock jumps 24.7% to 62.3p.

futura graph

In September, Shares reported that Futura was a step closer to challenging Viagra after its trials proved the gel is safe and works.

The treatment is expected to reach peak over-the-counter annual sales of more than $650m in key countries worldwide, while the prescription-only product was previously estimated to hit sales of $600m.

Around 70% of over-the-counter sales are targeted to people that haven’t used a prescription product. It means there is no significant impact anticipated if people switch to the other treatment.

Ipsos’ valuation was based on responses from 400 men with erectile dysfunction who were shown a concept about MED2002.

SALES POTENTIAL

Stockbroker N+1 Singer Dr Jens Lindqvist forecasts a sales potential for MED2002 of $190m as a prescription product in Europe alone

Futura has filed a new formulation patent with the UK Intellectual Property Office at the same time, which may extend the patent on the gel worldwide to 2038.

If this is successful, the treatment has the potential to generate more revenue over a longer period of time before generic versions eat into its sales.

Find out how to deal online from £1.50 in a SIPP, ISA or Dealing account.

Issue Date: 06 Mar 2017