For the second month running, shares in the three quoted supermarket chains are down following the latest UK grocery market share data from researchers Kantar Worldpanel.

Tesco (TSCO), the market leader by a big margin, sees its shares give up 2% to 226p while Sainsbury (SBRY) shares surrender 0.5% to 187p and Morrison (MRW) shares dip 2% to 195p.

Overall grocery sales were up 1.4% in the 12 weeks to 16 June with volumes up 0.4% and prices up just 1%, the lowest rate of food-price inflation since the start of 2017 which is a boon for consumers.

The cooler weather and lack of big sporting events means beer, ice cream and burger sales are down on last year but tinned soup sales are up 16% as customers hunker down indoors.

In terms of sales growth, the ‘big four’ including Asda all failed to keep pace with the overall market although it is becoming increasingly clear that the average is distorted by the discounters Aldi and Lidl who have aggressive store-opening programmes. It wouldn’t surprise us if, on a same-store basis, the discounters were growing at a similar rate to the big operators.

Of the ‘big four’, Tesco was the best performer over the last 12 weeks with zero sales growth. Sainsbury racked up its sixth consecutive month of negative sales growth and Morrison racked up its third down month this year.

Interestingly the discounters are no longer growing as fast as they were and their market share hasn’t changed in the last four months. Both are trying new approaches to keep growing their market share.

Aldi’s announcement that it is rolling out a small ‘Local’ format in London looks like it knows where its bread is buttered: grocery spending in the capital is up 4% year on year yet Aldi only takes home £1 in every £30 spent according to Kantar.

Lidl is taking the opposite tack and trying to lure more people to do their weekly shop with its ‘Big on the Big Shop’ campaign. According to Kantar nearly two thirds of Lidl’s growth is coming from shoppers spending more than £25 per visit.

12 Weeks Ended21 April19 May16 June
Tesco1.0%0.0%0.0%
Sainsbury-1.2%-1.7%-0.6%
Asda0.3%-0.2%-0.1%
Morrison0.6%-0.4%-0.5%
Aldi11.6%11.1%9.3%
Lidl8.6%8.5%7.5%
Market2.0%1.3%1.4%
Grocery sales year on year growth
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
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Issue Date: 25 Jun 2019