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Will China flourish in the Year of the Rat?

The latest Chinese lunar year begins on 26 January as the Year of the Rat takes over from the Year of the Pig. In theory, China already has something to celebrate, in the form of the phase one trade deal signed with the US on 15...

23 January 2020
Five dangers to watch in 2020

One of this column's favourite aphorisms from master investor Warren Buffett (and there are admittedly quite a few of those) is: 'speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest'.The strong returns offered by most asset classes...

09 January 2020
Where next for the price of oil and its producers?

OPEC is ending 2019 where it ended last year - on the back foot, trying to support the price of oil with production cuts pushed through in conjunction with Russia and other countries who are not members of the cartel.The extra...

19 December 2019
Don't get caught out by investment bubbles

One theory held by some market strategists is that a tidal wave of cheap cash, provided by central banks' interest rate and quantitative easing policies, means we are witnessing 'The Bubble of Everything' as prices surge across a...

12 December 2019
A five-point plan for emerging markets

The definition of an emerging market has often (jokingly) been a market from which you cannot emerge fast enough when it all goes wrong.Argentina and Chile are 2019's examples that seem to support this rule as the former lurched...

05 December 2019
How to read the bond market

For the umpteenth year in a row, bonds have confounded the bears in 2019. Once more, its exposure to the fixed-income asset class has proved its worth, for diversification purposes and for sold total returns.Yields may not be huge,...

28 November 2019
Why transport stocks need to get back on the rails

Regular readers of this column will be well aware that it is a bit of a trainspotter - and for that matter a ship, truck and planespotter, too.This is because it is a great adherent of Richard Russell's Dow Theory, which argues...

21 November 2019
Why US equities need a trade deal

The US stock market safely negotiated October this year, as the S&P 500 index gained 2% in the month and reached a fresh all-time high in early November. The Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ Composite have also surged to new...

14 November 2019
Why a sectoral shift raises big questions

The agricultural revolution introduced by 18th century British statesman Charles 'Turnip' Townshend may, at first glance, have no bearing at all on how investors could think about their portfolios and any tactical or strategic...

31 October 2019
FTSE 100 loses earnings momentum again

Brexit continues to dominate the headlines as the 31 October deadline for a withdrawal by the UK draws near and equity, bond and currency markets are becoming more volatile as a result.The dangers of second-guessing the outcome of...

17 October 2019
What is the repo market and why is it behaving oddly?

Real film buffs will remember Repo Man, a 1984 science fiction film directed by the UK's Alex Cox but it is the repo rate that investors need to be watching closely right now.The repo rate is the level at which banks lend to each...

10 October 2019
Can Japan tackle global trade concerns?

Investors with exposure to Japanese equities are enjoying the 'Abenomics' area, which dates back to Prime Minster Shinz? Abe's general election victory in December 2012. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index has soared by 125% in local...

03 October 2019
Is the EU turning Japanese?

Outgoing European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi talked a big game over the summer that only served to ratchet up the expectations of financial markets greedy for more cheap cash.In the end, Draghi provided a 10 basis...

19 September 2019
Is the yield curve reliable or not?

The yield curve on government bonds is grabbing a lot of headlines and not all of them are encouraging ones for investors.In fact, there are four types of yield curve, using the difference in yield between two and 10-year...

29 August 2019
What we can learn from oil's latest sticky patch

Stock markets are generally rising high, especially in the US, but commodity prices are doing nothing of the sort with the occasional, supply-driven exception such as nickel or iron ore. Despite a robust spring rally, the Bloomberg...

01 August 2019
Mounting debt haunts rate cut bonanza

One of the most stunning aspects of the financial markets in 2019 is the U-turn in monetary policy across the world's leading central banks.The Federal Reserve started the trend on 4 January when chair Jay Powell strongly hinted...

25 July 2019

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