- Group net ticket sales jump 22% to £5.3 billion
- Shares up 45% over the past year
- International ticketing grew by 14%
Shares in Trainline (TRN) were up over 12% to 366p, a new 12-month high as the online ticketing platform reported a 22% increase in group net ticket sales to £5.3 billion which was at the top end of the company’s ‘already improved’ guidance range of between 17% to 22%.
Group revenue for the year ended 29 February 2024 was £397 million, up 21% year-on-year and above Trainline’s guidance range of between 15% to 20% as UK sales jumped by 23% to £3.5 billion.
The company has benefited from reduced strike action and performance in its overseas operation, especially in Spain.
Trainline CEO Jody Ford said: ‘Our growth was fastest in Spanish domestic travel, which doubled year on year as we position ourselves as the aggregator of choice. Trainline's market share continues to rise on key routes like Madrid - Barcelona, which is now our third most popular route across all countries, including the UK.
‘This reflects liberalisation and emerging carrier competition that is set to transform European rail, driving down prices for customers while increasing choice and value.’
SHARE BUYBACK PROGRESS
Last September, the company launched a £50 million share buyback programme. As of the end of February 2024, Trainline had completed just over half of the programme.
Trainline shares have gained 45% over the past year comfortably outperforming the 2.5% gain in the FTSE 250 index.
EXPERT VIEW
Analysts Katie Cousins and Greg Johnson at Shore Capital said in a research note: ‘We see Trainline in a good position going into full year 2025 and given this morning’s update see scope to upgrade our forecasts.
‘Currently we have revenue of £432 million or 12% growth, with an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) of £130 million (2.26% of net ticket sales). With an improved net ticket base and assuming the 2.3% of net ticket sales run rate, this could add circa 5% to our adjusted EBITDA figure.
‘We view the expansion within Europe, and incoming international travel as key drivers for further valuation accretion, and therefore remain encouraged by progress made in these areas during full year 2024, having previously set out our assumptions for a potential £1.50 on top of our fair value, if Trainline can replicate its UK success in the current European total addressable market.’
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell said: ‘The company, which makes its money by earning commission and fees on ticket sales supported by ancillary services like insurance, is looking to boost an already dominant market share in the UK.
‘The track has been cleared here by the cancellation of a state-sponsored Great British Railways rival platform. The gradual easing of industrial action is also helping here and there is an opportunity to capture people who up until now have continued to buy paper tickets.
‘While there are limited barriers to entry Trainline’s established brand and the technology which underpins its site and app would be difficult for a rival to replicate. Innovations like digital season tickets, expensing travel in its app and ‘Strike Safe’ – a feature flagging whether a journey a traveller is searching is likely to be hit by strikes – can help keep travellers loyal.’
DISCLAIMER: Financial services company AJ Bell referenced in this article owns Shares magazine. The author of this article (Sabuhi Gard) and the editor (Martin Gamble) own shares in AJ Bell.
