Rio Tinto PLC on Tuesday backed its cautious guidance for 2024, as it provided annual production figures for 2023, eyeing a gradual recovery in China over the coming year.

The Anglo-Australian miner said iron ore production from the Pilbara assets in Western Australia fell 2% year-on-year to 87.5 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, but over 2023 as a whole, production rose 2% to 331.5 million. The Pilbara figures are on a 100% basis.

Pilbara iron ore shipments slipped 1% to 86.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, but rose 3% to 331.8 million in 2023 overall.

Bauxite production rose 15% annually to 15.1 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, but was flat in 2023 as a whole at 54.6 million tonnes.

‘Operations saw a continued improvement in the fourth quarter, with production 8% higher than the prior quarter, following the challenges of higher-than-average rainfall at Weipa in the first quarter and equipment downtime at both Weipa and Gove in the first half,’ Rio Tinto explained.

The miner’s Weipa operations are located in far north Queensland, while the Gove site is in Northern Territory, both in Australia.

Aluminium output was up 8% to 846,000 tonnes in the final quarter, and rose 9% to 3.3 million tonnes in 2023, with the Kitimat smelter returning to full capacity, and the completion of cell recovery efforts at Boyne over the third quarter.

Mined copper rose 5% in the fourth quarter to 160,000 tonnes, and by 2% to 620,000 tonnes in 2023. This reflects the ‘first sustainable production’ from the Oyu Tolgoi underground in the first quarter, as well as the full year of increased ownership of the Mongolian deposit.

Titanium dioxide slag dropped 15% to 275,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, and fell 7% to 1.1 million tonnes over the full year.

‘Commodity prices found some support during the quarter, amid increased Chinese policy measures, lower global recession fears and a broad slowdown in inflation. Monetary policy in advanced economies remains tight. However, interest rates may now have peaked. Global supply chain challenges have improved, although risks remain on certain routes such as the Panama and Suez Canals, while labour costs are still rising amidst tight markets in Australia, Canada and the USA,’ Rio Tinto commented.

It left its December guidance for production in 2024 unchanged, expecting Pilbara shipments to be in a range of 323 million to 338 million tonnes. Other guidance for 2024 was mostly for ranges that would be slightly lower to somewhat higher than 2023.

Commenting on the outlook for key markets in 2024, Rio Tinto said it expects Chinese stimulus measures to drive a ‘gradual recovery’ over the year, ‘albeit weighted towards the second half’, with weakness to persist in the real estate sector.

It also noted the ‘subdued’ growth in industrial production in the US and the ongoing manufacturing contraction, as the overall US economy slows with the cooling of the labour market. In the EU, it expects a slow recovery from a ‘low base’ later in the year.

‘There is good demand for the materials we produce, and our purpose and long-term strategy make more sense than ever. The work we are doing today is creating a stronger Rio Tinto for years to come, as we invest in profitable growth while continuing to deliver attractive shareholder returns,’ commented Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm.

Shares in Rio Tinto closed down 1.3% at A$126.66 in Sydney.

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