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Why transport stocks need to get back on the rails

Regular readers of this column will be well aware that it is a bit of a trainspotter - and for that matter a ship, truck and planespotter, too.This is because it is a great adherent of Richard Russell's Dow Theory, which argues...

21 November 2019
Why US equities need a trade deal

The US stock market safely negotiated October this year, as the S&P 500 index gained 2% in the month and reached a fresh all-time high in early November. The Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ Composite have also surged to new...

14 November 2019
Why a sectoral shift raises big questions

The agricultural revolution introduced by 18th century British statesman Charles 'Turnip' Townshend may, at first glance, have no bearing at all on how investors could think about their portfolios and any tactical or strategic...

31 October 2019
FTSE 100 loses earnings momentum again

Brexit continues to dominate the headlines as the 31 October deadline for a withdrawal by the UK draws near and equity, bond and currency markets are becoming more volatile as a result.The dangers of second-guessing the outcome of...

17 October 2019
What is the repo market and why is it behaving oddly?

Real film buffs will remember Repo Man, a 1984 science fiction film directed by the UK's Alex Cox but it is the repo rate that investors need to be watching closely right now.The repo rate is the level at which banks lend to each...

10 October 2019
Can Japan tackle global trade concerns?

Investors with exposure to Japanese equities are enjoying the 'Abenomics' area, which dates back to Prime Minster Shinz? Abe's general election victory in December 2012. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index has soared by 125% in local...

03 October 2019
Is the EU turning Japanese?

Outgoing European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi talked a big game over the summer that only served to ratchet up the expectations of financial markets greedy for more cheap cash.In the end, Draghi provided a 10 basis...

19 September 2019
Is the yield curve reliable or not?

The yield curve on government bonds is grabbing a lot of headlines and not all of them are encouraging ones for investors.In fact, there are four types of yield curve, using the difference in yield between two and 10-year...

29 August 2019
What we can learn from oil's latest sticky patch

Stock markets are generally rising high, especially in the US, but commodity prices are doing nothing of the sort with the occasional, supply-driven exception such as nickel or iron ore. Despite a robust spring rally, the Bloomberg...

01 August 2019
Mounting debt haunts rate cut bonanza

One of the most stunning aspects of the financial markets in 2019 is the U-turn in monetary policy across the world's leading central banks.The Federal Reserve started the trend on 4 January when chair Jay Powell strongly hinted...

25 July 2019
US stocks need to deliver strong second quarter earnings

As America celebrates Independence Day, investors with exposure to US equities will be looking for fireworks of a different kind from the imminent second-quarter reporting season.The latest round of financial updates and -...

04 July 2019
FTSE 100 needs more momentum to make further gains

We are six months into the year and the FTSE 100 is up nearly 9%, with the prospect of a decent dividend on top. Given everything that is going on in the world right now, it seems fair to assume that many investors would have taken...

20 June 2019
What can we learn from different industry sector performance?

This column has noted before (11 Apr 2019) the apparent disconnect between what bond markets and equity markets are saying.The renewed collapse in bond yields would appear to be presaging an economic slowdown or even a recession,...

13 June 2019
Why Ankara and Buenos Aires remain important to global portfolios

Last summer, many analysts were wondering whether Turkey was about to pull the rug from under global financial markets. Ankara's currency, the lira, was in free fall as the economy over-heated and found itself over-reliant on...

09 May 2019
Do commodity prices suggest stock markets are right to be bullish?

A surge in the oil price to six-month highs above $70 a barrel, using Brent crude as a benchmark, is grabbing a lot of headlines.Uncertainty over Libyan and Venezuelan output is contributing to crude's gains but a greater near-term...

02 May 2019
Why are government bond and share prices both rising?

Well here's a funny thing. On one hand, global stock markets are casting aside the gloom that characterised late 2018 and are off to the races once more. All eight of the major geographic options available to investors have...

11 April 2019

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