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Why central bank caution should worry investors

Just two months after it halted its quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying programme and made vague promises of interest rate increases for the second half of 2019 the European Central Bank is already downgrading its GDP forecasts...

14 March 2019
Is the US Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place?

As the central bank calibrates policy, pulling on levers such as interest rates and its unorthodox quantitative easing (QE) programmes, it is logical to assume that the US Federal Reserve is the lord of all that it surveys.After...

07 March 2019
Everything you need to know about modern monetary theory

After the global growth scare of 2018 financial markets appear to be regaining their nerve and verve, at least if global equities are any guide, for three possible reasons.First, US president Donald Trump continues to dangle the...

28 February 2019
Do European stocks need more quantitative easing to hit top gear again?

Legendary Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke once noted 'No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force'.Although he is not waging war in the physical sense, European...

14 February 2019
Why transport stocks need to fire if global stocks are to steam higher in 2019

After two years of negotiations US President Donald Trump is coming up against a wall, just not the one he expected. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are blocking his plans to build a physical...

31 January 2019
Big deals mean gold may still have lustre

The investment decisions that generate the best returns are rarely the most comfortable or easy ones, and few asset classes generate such strong feelings as gold.Some investors will be inclined to share the view of economist John...

17 January 2019
How to measure the earnings power of corporate America

A sour trading update from Apple leaves those investors who have exposure to US equities - and technology stocks in particular - with a few questions to answer.Although disappointing demand in China grabbed most of the headlines,...

10 January 2019
How to get ready for the year ahead

One of this column's favourite market sayings comes from fund management legend Sir John Templeton, who once asserted that 'Bull markets are founded on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria'.Applying...

20 December 2018
Why equities are hoping corporates stay in credit

One of the many arresting features of the 2007-09 financial crisis and resulting equity bear market was how stock markets were laid waste by problems in US housing and the bond markets.In other words, those investors who had heavy...

29 November 2018
What would make the Federal Reserve change tack?

Regular readers could be forgiven that this column is obsessed with the issue of liquidity, not least because that is the case.We have already looked at how central banks are draining it away and how issues such as capital controls...

08 November 2018
Quality of FTSE 100 earnings improves even as the index struggles

As the FTSE 100 remains in the grip of a global bout of 'risk-off' sentiment, investors can at least draw some reassurance from how the quantity and quality of UK plc's earnings seem to be improving.Two weeks ago this column noted...

01 November 2018
Why liquidity really matters to investors

The American poet and critic Dorothy Parker once commented that 'Love is like quicksilver in the hand. Leave the fingers open and it stays. Clutch it and it darts away'.While hard-nosed investors looking for portfolio returns may...

25 October 2018
How Italy could still knock the Eurozone off target

The old saying that 'markets like to climb a wall of worry' is getting a good work-out this autumn. As if a rising oil price, a strong dollar, tighter monetary policy in the US, emerging market debt crises and the Brexit...

11 October 2018
Why US equities seem to be passing the stress test (for now)

Last month's (26 Sept) interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve was the third this year and the eighth for the upcycle that began in December 2015.The headline Fed Funds rate now stands at 2.25% and the Federal Open...

04 October 2018
Why investors must keep an eye on the Federal Reserve

'The most expensive words in the English language are "this time it's different".' This assertion from investor John Templeton has stood the test of time for a reason, so it is with a shiver that this column sees no less an...

20 September 2018
Why September is an important month for Japan (if not the world)

September is going to be an important month for those investors who have exposure to Japan.First, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to provide its latest monetary policy decision on 19 September. Although Governor Haruhiko...

13 September 2018

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