UK grocery price inflation eased in the final quarter of the year, numbers showed on Tuesday, while take-home grocery sales are expected to beat previous records this December.

Like-for-like grocery inflation eased to 9.1% in the four weeks to November 26, according to Kantar. For the full 12-week period of the survey, inflation ebbed to 9.6%, from 13.0% in the 12 weeks to September 3.

Prices are rising fastest in markets such as eggs, sugar confectionery and frozen potato products, the data revealed.

‘The scene is set for record-breaking spend through the supermarket tills this Christmas. The festive period is always a bumper one for the grocers with consumers buying on average 10% more items than in a typical month. Some of the increase, of course, will also be driven by the ongoing price inflation we’ve seen this year,’ said Kantar analyst Fraser McKevitt.

‘While the rate at which grocery prices are rising is still well above the norm, the good news for shoppers is that inflation is continuing to come down...The retailers are also battling it out to offer value to consumers during this important month for trading and are doing what they can to keep prices low.’

Total UK grocery sales in the 12 weeks jumped 7.5% on-year to £33.72 billion, from £31.36 billion.

Tesco PLC, the largest UK grocer by market share, saw an 8.6% year-on-year sales hike to £9.27 billion from £8.53 billion. Its market share rose to 27.5% from 27.2%.

J Sainsbury PLC recorded a 10% sales hike to £5.26 billion from £4.78 billion. Its market share moved higher to 15.6% from 15.2%.

Asda sales rose 2.6%, while its market share fell to 13.4% from 14.0%. Morrisons, once part of the ’big four’ line-up of UK grocers, saw a 3.7% sales hike. Its market share dropped to 8.7% from 9.0%.

Online-only Ocado PLC saw a 12.1% sales hike to £581 million from £518 million. Its market share was unchanged at 1.7%.

Aldi, now the fourth-largest UK grocer by market share, enjoyed an 11% sales jump to £3.24 billion from £2.92 billion. Its market share rose to 9.6% from 9.3%.

Lidl sales jumped 14%, meanwhile, with its market share inching up to 7.8% from 7.4%.

According to Kantar, take-home grocery sales are expected to surpass £13 billion for the first time ever this December. In the four weeks to November 26, they grew 6.3% to reach £11.7 billion.

‘The amount of money spent on deals usually leaps in the run up to Christmas, but this year is already looking a bit different. We’re well above 2022 levels, with customers making an additional £180 million in savings this November versus 12 months ago. Brands have benefited from the boost in offers and have now edged ahead of their own-label counterparts, growing sales by 6.5% versus 6.4% for retailer lines,’ said McKevitt.

‘However, own-label is still doing incredibly well and premium lines especially so. These products are up by 15.4% year-on-year, with wine, chilled ready meals and fresh beef among the big winners last month. We’re likely to see a seasonal jump in premium stuffing, sausage meat and Christmas puddings over the coming weeks.’

December 22 is expected to be the busiest day in store, as consumers rush to prepare for the week ahead. Nearly 41 million brussels sprouts will pass through the tills every day in the week before December 25, Kantar predicted.

Shares in London-listed grocers were mixed on Tuesday morning. Tesco traded 0.6% higher at 283.00 pence, Sainsbury’s similarly rose 0.7% to 286.70p, while Ocado dropped 0.9% to 590.00p.

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